Saturday, December 8, 2012

AWARDS SEASON: The State of the Race

It's interesting how much our early instincts usually bear fruit when it comes to the Oscar race. Particularly in the Best Picture category, receptions from early screenings can usually give a good idea of which films will be legitimate contenders. This is the 3rd time I've done this preseason assessment of the Best Picture race and each year I've only missed 1 of the eventual nominees. Of course, some may say the season has already started, but for me the most important precursors are the televised awards shows. For any Oscar hopeful, a good televised acceptance speech can be hugely beneficial for building momentum in the long awards season. Based on current buzz, here's your current Top 10 for Best Picture contention:

1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Les Misérables
5. Argo
6. Life of Pi
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. Flight
9. The Master
10. Moonrise Kingdom

At the moment, it seems like Zero Dark Thirty is the one to beat but the race is far from over. I've been fortunate to have already seen most of these contenders and to me, Lincoln also looks to be in very good shape for the win. It's very likely that it will have the most nominations (along with Les Misérables) and will garner a lot of attention from it's box office success. That being said, I still need to see some of the heavyweights (Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook and Les Miserables) and it's very possible that each of those will have enough support to share the wealth throughout all the various precursor awards. The week ahead will surely confirm a lot of our expectations, with BFCA (Critics Choice), SAG (Screen Actors Guild) and HFPA (Golden Globes) all set to announce their nominees (on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively).


  1. Man! I've only seen three of those films! Although five haven't been released here yet.

    1. Hopefully you get to see them before the Oscars. The lineup looks like it's gonna be high on quality this year.

    2. I'm going to a Life of Pi preview tomorrow so that ticks one off. I don't know the release dates for the others but most Oscar contenders usually come out around mid Feb to tie in with all the free publicity.

  2. Well, I guess Lincoln's box office sucks with only 83 million gross, Zero Dark Thirty looks boosts lately pretty much, however I still think the unseen Les Mis is the best candidate for now, according to early raving reviews.

    Argo is stepping back, but Ben heads the director predictions.

    Mostly, everything depends on the reactions after Les Mis premiere.

    1. Actually, Lincoln's box office is pretty phenomenal for that type of film. Obviously it won't do superhero blockbuster numbers, but it's doing very well and will easily pass the $100 million mark. As of right now, it looks like it will be the highest-grossing Best Picture nominee.

      As I said, it's not over yet so Les Miserables could very well swoop in and steal it.

  3. I guess Life of Pi is going to gross more